Weather Variation and All-Cause Mortality Risk in Late 19th and Early 20th Century North Orkney, Scotland

Nicole Cintrón Ortiz, Case Western Reserve University
Julia Jennings, University at Albany

Variation in meteorological conditions, especially temperature and precipitation, is associated with mortality risk in both historical and modern populations. Studies of historical European populations have found that in general, higher temperatures are more favorable than lower temperatures, with the exception of heat waves, and that individuals with low socioeconomic status are more vulnerable to the potential negative effects of poor weather conditions. Further, it is hypothesized that weather variation may be one driver of short-term changes in food prices, which have been found to be associated with mortality risk across of a range of historical settings. North Orkney, Scotland, is a remote archipelago in the North Sea and is often subject to severe weather. Linked historical demographic microdata and detailed meteorological observations from 1855 to 1911 are used to estimate discrete-time event history models of all-cause mortality risk. In this relatively cold and rainy setting, low minimum temperatures are associated with higher mortality risk, with effect sizes comparable to mortality risk differences between low and high-status groups. Effects of rainfall variation are more subtle, but they do have some association with mortality.

No extended abstract or paper available

 Presented in Session 150. Environmental and Social Dimensions of Infectious Disease Mortality: Historical Perspectives