Technological Anxiety, Quantum Computing, and Economic Impacts: Can the Past Inform the Future?

Livio Di Matteo, Lakehead University
Olivia Di Matteo, University of British Columbia

Technological change has been the chief contributor to economic growth since the industrial revolution. Estimates of its per capita GDP growth contribution range from one third to 90 percent. Nevertheless, technological change always seems accompanied by anxieties related to the long-term unemployment. Given increases in employment and per capita income over the last 150 years, one might expect a more positive outlook on the economic impact of current developments underway in quantum information. This work surveys technological anxiety, followed by developments in quantum computing and the challenges it faces. It then extrapolates, based on current metrics, the potential effects on employment and income quantum computing may have in the long term. Using US data, estimates suggest that a one percent increase in computer and communications and electronics as a share of total patents appears associated with nearly a one percent increase in real per capita US GDP and a three quarters of one percent increase in total US employment in the period since 1948. Assuming quantum patents as a share of total patents behaves in similar fashion, there is no clear reason why the future path of growth in both income and employment cannot continue with new quantum technology. Much depends on the rate at which industrially relevant quantum applications affect the economy, given the technology is still in its infancy. Moreover, constructing a robust measure of the potential of quantum computing is difficult given that novel metrics required for benchmarking its performance and impact are actively under development.

No extended abstract or paper available

 Presented in Session 47. Technology and Entrepreneurship