2020 Census Data for Small Areas: Implications of New Disclosure Avoidance Methods for Time Series

Constance F. Citro, The National Academies

This presentation will trace the history of governmental organization in the United States, which has resulted in a crazy quilt of jurisdictional structures among and within the states. There are "strong" county states, "strong" minor civil division states, and everything in between. In 2020, the United States had about 41,000 general purpose governmental jurisdictions (counties, minor civil divisions, incorporated places, American Indian reservations) and about 30,000 statistical areas to define recognized communities (census county divisions, census designated places, American Indian and Alaska Native tribal areas). The use of a differentially private algorithm to protect confidentiality by injecting noise into virtually every table cell for every governmental (and statistical) unit created uncertainty in the figures, particularly for small population units (excluding counties and census county divisions, 50% of these units had fewer than about 1,000 people). These uncertainties will compound if a DP algorithm is used in 2030 without reference to 2020—generating anomalies in time series that will complicate the life of the social science historian.

No extended abstract or paper available

 Presented in Session 181. Round Table, Data Confidentiality, Respondent Trust: 21st Century Issues